The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects inflation to pick up in March 2026, forecasting it to settle between 3.1 percent and 3.9 percent, a notable increase from the 2.4 percent recorded in February. This outlook signals rising price pressures in the near term and suggests that inflation could move closer to the upper end of the government’s target range.
The projected acceleration in inflation is being driven by several key factors. Higher domestic fuel prices are pushing up transport and production costs, while increases in rice prices and electricity rates—particularly in areas served by Meralco—are adding to household expenses. The recent depreciation of the peso is also making imports more expensive, further contributing to inflationary pressures.
Some relief may come from lower prices of vegetables, fish, and meat, which could help moderate overall inflation. However, the BSP noted that upward risks remain dominant, meaning price increases could still exceed expectations if current pressures persist.
The March forecast is significant because it marks a shift from the relatively moderate inflation seen earlier this year. In February, inflation rose to 2.4 percent from 2 percent in January, driven mainly by faster increases in food, household goods, and services such as dining and accommodation. Core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy items—also edged higher to 2.9 percent, indicating that underlying price pressures are building.
Looking ahead, the BSP said it will remain cautious and data-driven in its policy decisions, closely monitoring inflation trends and economic growth. It also flagged global risks, particularly developments in the Middle East, which could affect oil prices and, in turn, domestic inflation and economic activity.
Overall, the latest forecast underscores growing inflation risks and highlights the need for continued vigilance as price pressures broaden across the economy.
