Palay and corn production may decline sharply in the third quarter, with the latest estimates from the Philippine Statistics Authority pointing to smaller harvest areas for both crops and weaker corn yields.
The PSA estimated palay output at 3.19 million metric tons for July to September based on standing crops as of Aug. 1, down 15 percent from the 3.75 million tons actually harvested in the same period in 2025.
The estimate was also 2.2 percent below the 3.26 million tons projected as of July 1, indicating that the production outlook weakened further during the month.
The projected decline in palay output is largely an area story. The estimated harvest area fell 16 percent to 771,790 hectares from 916,770 hectares a year earlier, while yield was seen edging up 1 percent to 4.13 metric tons per hectare.
As of Aug. 1, only 113,790 hectares, or 15 percent of the estimated harvest area, had been harvested, producing 455,250 tons of palay.
The figures remain subject to change, with 60 percent of the 1.55 million hectares of standing palay still at the vegetative stage. Another 26 percent was at the reproductive stage and 14 percent was maturing.
Corn production was likewise projected to fall 14 percent to 2.08 million tons from 2.43 million tons a year earlier. The estimate was 1.5 percent below the July projection.
Unlike palay, corn faces declines in both area and productivity. The projected harvest area fell 13 percent to 688,030 hectares, while yield was seen dropping 1.6 percent to 3.02 tons per hectare.
At the start of August, 129,950 hectares, or 19 percent of the estimated corn harvest area, had been harvested, producing 366,790 tons.
The preliminary figures highlight the importance of actual planting and harvest conditions in determining third-quarter food supply. Weather conditions, crop losses, and the pace of harvesting could still alter the final production tally.
