Philippine merchandise exports could hit a record USD100 billion in 2026, up from about USD84 billion last year, as surging electronics shipments and a possible mineral export recovery offset risks from US tariff policies.
Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport) president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said the target was achievable, provided no unexpected trade restrictions disrupt shipments.
“It’s very possible,” Ortiz-Luis said.
“Again, the electronics is growing very fast. Plus we hope the mineral sector, that’s the one that will help,” he added.
Exports gained momentum in August, rising 27.8 percent year-on-year to USD9.11 billion — the highest monthly total in 35 years.
The increase brought merchandise exports for January to August to USD64.04 billion, up 14.8 percent from the same period in 2025.
Still, the outlook hinges partly on US trade policy. Ortiz-Luis warned that additional tariffs tied to forced-labor concerns involving imported inputs could disrupt shipments, while uncertainty over tariff rates and exemptions for electronics remains a concern.
“Most of these targets depend on how we’ll execute these tariff plans,” he said.
Ortiz-Luis added that export goals had been adjusted from the original Export Development Plan projections to reflect more realistic conditions.
“Barring any surprises, for me, I think we’ll be doing okay,” he said.
Reaching USD100 billion would require exports to sustain their pace through the final four months of the year. Electronics provide a strong growth engine, but the outcome will also depend on mineral shipments and whether new US trade measures create fresh headwinds.
