Philippine financial markets are heading into the week on a cautious footing as renewed threats by Iran to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz inject fresh volatility into global oil supply expectations and inflation outlooks, according to Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort.
Ricafort said the local currency has so far shown a measured resilience, with the peso trading in a tight P61.60–P61.70 range last week. The steadiness, he noted, reflects a mix of possible central bank intervention and growing expectations that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may remain ready to adjust policy settings to anchor inflation and curb import-driven price pressures.
Technically, Ricafort pointed to a dense cluster of resistance levels for the peso, starting with the P60.83–P61.34 gap zone left unfilled on June 15, alongside the P61.00 psychological barrier. He added that the P61.00–P61.20 band has acted as a near-term ceiling, preventing a retest of the April 30 intraday peak at P61.75.
A sustained break higher could open the door toward P61.60–ap61.70 and potentially the P62.00 level, which would push the currency into uncharted territory.
Equities are similarly range-bound.
The PSEi continues to face stiff resistance around 6,325, capping momentum toward its February 26 high of 6,673.61. Additional resistance sits in the 6,501–6,554 gap zone left open in early March, suggesting the index is still trading under technical overhangs despite its broader uptrend.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 6,000, reinforced by a 5,894–6,103 gap area, while stronger support lies between 5,980–6,045, shielding the market from a deeper pullback toward the May 29 low of 5,766.82.
Despite geopolitical noise, the PSEi still managed a 3.8 percent weekly gain, underpinned by net foreign inflows and easing global borrowing costs. Still, sentiment remains highly reactive to US-Iran negotiations, with oil prices and inflation expectations now once again the market’s central swing factors.
