With the 2028 presidential election still two years away, the latest Pulse Asia survey suggests that what once looked like a one-sided race may be shaping into a far more competitive contest.
Vice President Sara Duterte remains the clear frontrunner, securing 51 percent support in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against former vice president and now Leni Robredo, who garnered 41 percent.
But beyond the topline numbers lies a more intriguing political story.
A 10-point lead is comfortable. It is not commanding.
The survey, commissioned by the Stratbase Group and conducted from May 3 to 7 among 1,500 respondents nationwide, found only 8 percent of voters still undecided.
For Duterte, that reflects a formidable national base anchored by an overwhelming 91 percent preference rating in Mindanao.
For Robredo, however, it highlights something equally significant: she remains highly competitive despite Duterte’s home-court advantage.
In fact, outside Mindanao, the race is remarkably tight.
Robredo leads decisively in Balance Luzon, 55 percent to 33 percent, while the two are statistically tied in Metro Manila, where Duterte scored 48 percent against Robredo’s 46 percent.
Those numbers suggest that Robredo’s political brand remains resilient six years after her vice presidency and despite years outside national office.
Stratbase Group founder Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit noted that sustaining a 91 percent regional preference through an entire presidential campaign would be difficult for any candidate. That observation may be the survey’s most important takeaway.
Duterte enters the race with a large lead. Robredo enters it with a visible pathway.
The findings also underscore another emerging reality. The next presidential election could be fought as much on smartphones as on stage.
Eighty-three percent of respondents identified the internet as their primary news source, well ahead of television at 64 percent.
For both camps, the campaign has not yet officially begun. Yet the first major survey of the 2028 race suggests that the battle lines are already taking shape, and the gap separating the two leading contenders may be narrower than it first appears.
