Philippine exports are poised to sustain double-digit growth this year and outperform government forecasts despite higher US tariffs and other external challenges, supported by strong first-half shipments and a broader mix of products and markets.
Department of Trade and Industry Export Marketing Bureau Director Bianca Sykimte said the agency remains “cautiously optimistic” that export growth would surpass the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s assumptions of 3 percent for goods and 4 percent for services.
“We’ve seen the DBCC forecasts about 3 percent for goods and 4 percent for services. We are cautiously optimistic that we’ll surpass that,” Sykimte said, citing double-digit growth in the first half.
Merchandise exports rose 20.4 percent in March, 7.2 percent in April, 7.6 percent in May, and 24.1 percent in June, reflecting continued overseas demand for Philippine products.
The upbeat outlook comes despite the United States imposing a 12.5-percent tariff on covered Philippine goods. While the US remains the country’s largest export market, Sykimte noted that about 70 percent of Philippine shipments are outside the tariff’s coverage.
The remaining 30 percent of exports covered by the 12.5-percent tariff are valued at around USD6 billion.
Sykimte said the Philippines would continue pursuing the “best terms” for exporters, including possible exemptions or lower rates, as trade discussions with Washington continue.
So far, Philippine exports have shown an ability to absorb the pressure. In 2025, amid the Trump administration’s renewed tariff push, the country still posted record merchandise exports of about USD84 billion.
“We’re still optimistic about this year’s growth,” Sykimte said.
Beyond electronics and semiconductors, the DTI expects minerals and agriculture to provide additional momentum. Coconut exports rose 34.4 percent, while pineapples and bananas also posted gains. Products such as ube and calamansi are likewise emerging as potential growth areas.
Sykimte said diversification into more products and markets would remain crucial as global trade barriers become increasingly complicated.
For Philippine exporters, the strategy is becoming clear: when one market puts up a wall, finding another door may be the better business plan.
