Woke up this morning hoping for a reset, with my circadian rhythm hopefully back on track after weeks of near-sleeplessness, due in part to bodily changes occasioned by advancing age and to the ayuda economy, which has gone from bad to worse to overdrive. I cannot believe what has recently been printed in both legacy news outlets and portals like the one where I currently work, or the level of absurdity that has pervaded the country. When I ask any reasonable person what ails the Philippines, with its rich resources and poor economic performance, the retort and the discussion that follow quickly turn absurd. The survey firms Pulse Asia and OCTA have a four-word answer: the cost of living. Two-thirds of the country say the most urgent issue is inflation, and that “public sentiment . . . is being shaped primarily by economic strain and the rising cost of living.”
Araay! It’s not abstract GDP; it’s the price of palay, pamasahe, kuryente, and sibuyas. When the price of rice goes from P45 to P60, everything else feels more expensive. And don’t get me started on gasoline.
Now, let’s examine our history of solutions, whether real, tried, or institutionalized. From 1986 through the 1990s, the economy opened up, and the debt-ridden Central Bank of the Philippines was reformed, eventually giving way to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Interest rates, which had reached as high as 38 percent during the Marcos Sr. years, came down to 5 percent during the succeeding Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos administrations as fiscal discipline returned, foreign investors were welcomed, the tax system was revamped, and the central bank lost its fiscal function (you read that right). This was the period economists remember for its real structural fixes.
In the 2000s, value-added tax and conditional cash transfers were all the rage, the latter copied from Brazil and Mexico. The 4Ps was crafted to provide cash to the poorest families, helping their children attend school and visit health centers. In the 2010s came rice tariffication and the TRAIN law. Then came the 2020s, when the ayuda economy took hold, in part because of COVID and Putin’s war in Ukraine. In summary, we’ve had Kadiwa and P20-per-kilo rice, followed by price ceilings imposed by decree as the staple sold for P70 a kilo and ayuda became a strategy for economic expansion. Various solutions were advanced, but these are the ones I remember most.
“Magtanim sa bakuran. Mag-alaga ng manok.” One Cabinet official opened his mouth in 2022 as onion prices hit P700 a kilo, and that official became the butt of jokes.
“Kumain ng kamote o galunggong.” We, the poor, were told to diet and eat sweet potatoes instead of rice. One woman legislator notoriously noted that “mahirap na ang galunggong ngayon.”
“Inflation is psychological.” Our bright government servants claimed that high prices were the result of hoarding, speculation, or panicked Filipinos, implying that if we only believed prices were low, they would be. Giatay ba.
“Win’s solution? More laws.” Throw the book at the population. We already have more than 300 laws on poverty; one more should do the trick. Pisti ba uy!
“Unity as economic plan.” Someone said this has the same vibe as “discipline” under martial law. Ha ha ha.
We are f…ed. The imagined fixes are popular: price controls by presidential order, the revival of rolling stores, and oodles more ayuda are fast and photogenic. The absurd ones, like eating plant roots, survive because they cost nothing, and shift the blame to the consumer. But it’s the supply chain, you idiot!
The Pedantic is a weekly commentary by Jun Vallecera, editor of Context.ph, sometime cat father to 12 puspins, and a 38-year veteran of watching the Philippine economy misbehave. He does his own laundry, which may explain his continued employment at home, and occasionally wonders why his wife has not left him yet. His views are entirely his own, although he remains unconvinced that anyone is keeping score.
