Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. (RCBC) is urging Philippine businesses to stay on guard against trade and foreign exchange risks, warning that months of geopolitical disruptions will continue to weigh on cash flows and profitability even as global oil prices retreat and key shipping routes reopen.
Speaking at economic briefings in Cebu and Bacolod, RCBC executives said recent improvements in global markets following a June 18 framework agreement to end regional hostilities should not be mistaken for an all-clear signal.
“The right solution for your business depends entirely on your position in the supply chain and your specific liquidity needs,” said RCBC Head of Trade and Supply Chain Finance Alexei Jabola.
He said businesses should strengthen working capital management through trade finance tools such as payables and receivables financing to cushion the impact of volatile currencies, elevated energy costs, and supply chain disruptions. RCBC is also expanding its digital trade finance platform this year, enabling corporate clients to process Letters of Credit, Bank Guarantees, Bureau of Customs PAS6 payments, and supply chain finance transactions online.
RCBC Head of Corporate and Commercial Distribution Maria Pamela C. Macapagal also urged firms with foreign exchange exposure to adopt disciplined hedging strategies instead of trying to predict currency movements.
“There is no way to pick the bottom,” she said, advising companies to identify their worst-case exchange rate, map their exposure, and protect margins by locking in costs.
RCBC Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort warned that inflation could average 6% to 7% this year under the bank’s base-case scenario, while economic growth may slow to 3 percent to 4 percent, below the government’s target. He also sees the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raising policy rates to between 5.5 percent and 6 percent by yearend if inflationary pressures persist.
Despite easing oil prices, RCBC said businesses should remain proactive as geopolitical uncertainty, higher borrowing costs, and currency volatility continue to reshape the operating environment.
