Economic ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are set to confront two mounting external risks—escalating Middle East tensions and new US tariffs—when they gather for upcoming talks expected to probe the region’s exposure to global volatility.
Unlike their diplomatic counterparts, ASEAN’s trade chiefs have yet to issue a collective statement on the worsening crisis involving Iran, but officials say the issue will likely surface under the agenda item on regional and global developments.
Lyn Aquia, director of the Bureau of International Trade Relations, said economic ministers will first receive a briefing from the ASEAN Secretariat outlining the conflict’s potential spillover into oil markets, energy costs and inflation.
“I understand that the ASEAN secretary will have a briefing on the Iran crisis and the effects on the prices of oil and energy, as well as on inflation,” Aquia said, noting that officials are awaiting guidance from ministers on whether the bloc should articulate a shared economic stance.
The timing is delicate. ASEAN economies—many of which rely heavily on imported fuel—remain sensitive to oil price shocks that could reignite inflation just as monetary pressures begin to ease across parts of the region.
Beyond geopolitics, trade tensions with the US are also expected to dominate discussions. Washington imposed a new round of tariffs two weeks ago, prompting concern among Southeast Asian economies over potential disruptions to trade flows and supply chains.
Rather than retaliate, ASEAN ministers earlier signaled a preference for dialogue. Aquia said several member states have already begun negotiating with the US individually to address the tariffs.
Still, the twin pressures—from geopolitical conflict and protectionist trade policy—highlight the bloc’s delicate balancing act: protecting growth while avoiding escalation with major economic partners.
For ASEAN, the upcoming meeting may be less about immediate policy shifts and more about calibrating a collective response to a global environment that is growing more unpredictable by the week.
