Metro Manila’s condominium market continues to grapple with persistent oversupply as buyers withdraw from purchases when monthly payments jump sharply upon transitioning from developer financing to bank loans.
Colliers Philippines Research Director Joey Bondoc said cancellations often occur around the fifth year of payment schemes, when buyers approach unit turnover and must secure bank financing to complete their purchases.
Monthly amortizations can rise from P10,000-P12,000 under in-house financing to P40,000-P50,000 once bank loans take effect, Bondoc said. Some buyers fail to qualify for loans, while others find the higher payments unaffordable.
Colliers recorded 9,000 cancellations from January to September, comprising 5,200 units under construction and 3,800 ready-for-occupancy units. Mid-income developments in Pasig accounted for a significant share of the withdrawals.
Unsold condominium inventory remained at about 80,000 units, including 32,000 completed homes, suggesting that discounts and flexible payment schemes have yet to meaningfully reduce the supply overhang.
Developers are also pushing back construction schedules amid sluggish demand. Third-quarter completions reached only 2,200 units, against an initial forecast of 4,500. Of the 7,600 units scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter, two to three major projects could be delayed until early 2027.
Metro Manila’s condominium vacancy rate stood at 24.6 percent, with upcoming completions expected to push it to a record high in the fourth quarter.
Bondoc expects condominium launches and take-up in 2026 to reach their lowest levels, with only about 3,000 units recorded in each category so far.
Meanwhile, stronger sales and price appreciation outside the capital are supporting a shift toward house-and-lot and lot-only developments, offering buyers alternatives to high-rise living.
“What is very pronounced at this point is absorption over proliferation,” Bondoc said.
The market’s recovery will depend not only on developers curbing new supply but also on improving affordability, securing buyer financing and converting existing inventory into completed sales.
